5G and the Digital Divide haunting Ireland.
The stark reality is that 5G will exacerbate connectivity disparity, not reverse it.
Published 02/02/19
Being enthralled by the seemingly endless potential of 5G is fitting, but for the desperate rural dwellers lacking any form of connectivity today, the next generation of wireless networks will not address your agony. In fact, the networks of tomorrow will almost certainly intensify it.
This is not the technology which will deliver connectivity equality, something that has been promised by the mega-corporations in the race to pursue it. Instead, 5G casts a darker shadow over rural communities, syphoning them of investment from telecoms companies, and by that extension, job opportunities. You see, it's not just the topographical challenges and sparse population distribution that thwarts investment in rural Ireland, it's also a result of a widening wealth divide between our cities and the areas that lie desolate in their shadow.
Companies, regardless of their clout, refrain from pumping money into communities where there is little money available in the first place. This is the precise reason why agencies such as the IDA need to provide massive subsidies to investors in peripheral regions such as the West of Ireland to make investments worthwhile. Now, if you think achieving pervasive 4G coverage in Ireland is an insurmountable battle, even after six consecutive years of deployment, prepare to be stunned by the obscene availability struggles that will plague 5G rollouts over the coming years.
This is not the technology which will deliver connectivity equality, something that has been promised by the mega-corporations in the race to pursue it. Instead, 5G casts a darker shadow over rural communities, syphoning them of investment from telecoms companies, and by that extension, job opportunities. You see, it's not just the topographical challenges and sparse population distribution that thwarts investment in rural Ireland, it's also a result of a widening wealth divide between our cities and the areas that lie desolate in their shadow.
Companies, regardless of their clout, refrain from pumping money into communities where there is little money available in the first place. This is the precise reason why agencies such as the IDA need to provide massive subsidies to investors in peripheral regions such as the West of Ireland to make investments worthwhile. Now, if you think achieving pervasive 4G coverage in Ireland is an insurmountable battle, even after six consecutive years of deployment, prepare to be stunned by the obscene availability struggles that will plague 5G rollouts over the coming years.
Breaking down 5G NR in Europe
The issue with 5G, from the perspective of mobile providers, is that the technology's most advantageous feature is the ability to provide extreme capacity in dense urban environments. This capacity breakthrough is a culmination of advancements in areas such as high-order MIMO (8x8), QAM, beamforming and even the network slicing space. However, the most profound contributor to the seismic benefits of 5G lay within the bands of radio spectrum that are used for data transmission. Unfortunately, it just so happens to be this last point that impacts rural coverage availability the most.
The 3.6GHz band is recognised as the pioneering sub-6GHz spectrum band for 5G NR deployments on the continent of Europe, offerings peak download speeds of 2Gbps with 105MHz of the spectrum allocated. This spectrum is a markedly higher frequency than what we use for 4G today in Ireland, which is composed of the 800MHz and 1800MHz bands. It will be necessary to deploy a significantly greater number of 3.6GHz macro and microsites to achieve a level of coverage that is comparable to that provided by the 1800MHz and 2100MHz bands.
The 3.6GHz band is recognised as the pioneering sub-6GHz spectrum band for 5G NR deployments on the continent of Europe, offerings peak download speeds of 2Gbps with 105MHz of the spectrum allocated. This spectrum is a markedly higher frequency than what we use for 4G today in Ireland, which is composed of the 800MHz and 1800MHz bands. It will be necessary to deploy a significantly greater number of 3.6GHz macro and microsites to achieve a level of coverage that is comparable to that provided by the 1800MHz and 2100MHz bands.
That said, with continuing momentum in the microwave backhaul industry, it is not unlikely that we will see sub-6GHz 5G NR deployed to some rural sites which are located in close proximity to fixed infrastructure and clusters of homes. In these communities, the 3.6GHz band holds potential as a method to provide FWA broadband, boosting the quality of connectivity enjoyed by households and businesses.
As we move further up the spectrum in the coming years, and towards the mmWave frequencies, it becomes vividly apparent that the second stage of 5G NR deployments will focus almost unanimously on dense urban centres where deploying multiple small cells per street makes sense, both financially and capacity requirement-wise. Deployments that focus on mmWave spectrum will be targeted to cover very specific areas within cities to reduce the enormous costs that ensue any such rollout.
Europe is settling on the 26GHz (24.25–27.5GHz) and 42GHz bands (40.5–43.5GHz) for second-stage 5G NR deployments. There is heavy use of the 26GHz band for microwave backhaul across many countries in Europe, with over 2,600 links utilising this band in Ireland. As a result, it is likely that we will see the release of the 26.5–27.5GHz band for mmWave 5G deployments in some countries until the 26GHz band can be vacated. Further down the line, we are likely to see the deployment of 5G in the 66–71GHz band, marking an unprecedented widening of the radio spectrum that we use for mobile services.
As we move further up the spectrum in the coming years, and towards the mmWave frequencies, it becomes vividly apparent that the second stage of 5G NR deployments will focus almost unanimously on dense urban centres where deploying multiple small cells per street makes sense, both financially and capacity requirement-wise. Deployments that focus on mmWave spectrum will be targeted to cover very specific areas within cities to reduce the enormous costs that ensue any such rollout.
Europe is settling on the 26GHz (24.25–27.5GHz) and 42GHz bands (40.5–43.5GHz) for second-stage 5G NR deployments. There is heavy use of the 26GHz band for microwave backhaul across many countries in Europe, with over 2,600 links utilising this band in Ireland. As a result, it is likely that we will see the release of the 26.5–27.5GHz band for mmWave 5G deployments in some countries until the 26GHz band can be vacated. Further down the line, we are likely to see the deployment of 5G in the 66–71GHz band, marking an unprecedented widening of the radio spectrum that we use for mobile services.
In many cases, the coverage footprint of the spectrum sighted above is so poor that penetrating previously trivial materials such as glass, wood and foliage becomes a major challenge for mobile providers. The rate of signal attenuation with 5G is rapid, as atmospheric gasses absorb the electromagnetic spectrum, pointing to the necessity for a dense and uninterrupted network of small cells for consistent connectivity.
Given these facts, two realities are very clear: Deployments of 5G will focus on dense urban centres where the concentration of people and wealth is vastly greater than it is in rural towns, villages and lands. Just as the case was in the early stages of 4G, mobile providers will charge a premium for access to 5G in order to subsidise the ramp up in CapEx. These cost premiums will have greater appeal to affluent communities in urban areas, putting them at the top of a mobile provider's deployment strategy.
The process of actually deploying this infrastructure is less expensive in urban centres, a virtue of the widespread availability of fixed networks for high capacity, resilient backhaul. It does not make economic sense for private companies to lay fibre in rural areas, and this has the downstream impact of rendering mobile investment impossible too.
Given these facts, two realities are very clear: Deployments of 5G will focus on dense urban centres where the concentration of people and wealth is vastly greater than it is in rural towns, villages and lands. Just as the case was in the early stages of 4G, mobile providers will charge a premium for access to 5G in order to subsidise the ramp up in CapEx. These cost premiums will have greater appeal to affluent communities in urban areas, putting them at the top of a mobile provider's deployment strategy.
The process of actually deploying this infrastructure is less expensive in urban centres, a virtue of the widespread availability of fixed networks for high capacity, resilient backhaul. It does not make economic sense for private companies to lay fibre in rural areas, and this has the downstream impact of rendering mobile investment impossible too.
The Motorway Analogy is wrong
Those that neglect to acknowledge the connectivity divide in Ireland, or anywhere for that matter, persistently refer to the motorway analogy in an effort to convey the message that providing world-class connectivity infrastructure to rural homes and businesses is overkill. Frankly, in the short term, this is true.
Just look to FTTH deployments as an example of this, many providers have failed to identify the new applications that are exclusively applicable to this technology today. For the average Internet user in 2019, speeds of up to 1000Mbps are not necessary as there are virtually no use cases which take advantage of the bandwidth available. Some claim that this is akin to building a motorway to every building on our island.
However, I profoundly disagree with the view because it totally ignores the longevity of technology, a critically important aspect for end users. The advantages introduced with FTTH act as a fundamental building block and a catalyst for the advancement of content-rich services which require a connection of exceptionally high quality. In this way, FTTH will become the dominant fixed connection type, rendering copper obsolete, and paving the way towards a more connected society.
If we decide today that rural premises are not deserving of FTTH connectivity, it is a conscious decision to deprive people of a right tomorrow: access to the Internet.
The above narrative can also be applied to 5G NR and the ecosystem of services that it will ultimately enable. Sure, deploying high-capacity 4G and 5G networks in rural Ireland is not a necessity today given the fact that the services used by the majority of people can be supported by the expansion of existing 4G (800MHz) infrastructure. This strategy will not stand the test of time, though, and the areas that lack high-bandwidth mobile coverage will be left in the digital darkness as the evolution of services continues.
Just look to FTTH deployments as an example of this, many providers have failed to identify the new applications that are exclusively applicable to this technology today. For the average Internet user in 2019, speeds of up to 1000Mbps are not necessary as there are virtually no use cases which take advantage of the bandwidth available. Some claim that this is akin to building a motorway to every building on our island.
However, I profoundly disagree with the view because it totally ignores the longevity of technology, a critically important aspect for end users. The advantages introduced with FTTH act as a fundamental building block and a catalyst for the advancement of content-rich services which require a connection of exceptionally high quality. In this way, FTTH will become the dominant fixed connection type, rendering copper obsolete, and paving the way towards a more connected society.
If we decide today that rural premises are not deserving of FTTH connectivity, it is a conscious decision to deprive people of a right tomorrow: access to the Internet.
The above narrative can also be applied to 5G NR and the ecosystem of services that it will ultimately enable. Sure, deploying high-capacity 4G and 5G networks in rural Ireland is not a necessity today given the fact that the services used by the majority of people can be supported by the expansion of existing 4G (800MHz) infrastructure. This strategy will not stand the test of time, though, and the areas that lack high-bandwidth mobile coverage will be left in the digital darkness as the evolution of services continues.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". A statement that bears striking resemblance to the connectivity struggle in Ireland. The National Broadband Scheme (NBS) highlighted this, delivering broadband to previously underserved rural areas from the beginning of 2009 onwards. At the time, the HSPA network offered by Three was capable of up to 5Mbps. However, as concerns correctly identified during the design and deployment stages, this 3G-based cellular technology would be rendered obsolete within several years.
The decision to use wireless technology for the NBS was one that aimed to reduce the cost and time required to achieve a pervasive roll-out. In hindsight, we can understand that the costs shaved by utilising a less expensive and inferior solution are far outweighed by the cost of lost productivity and regional investment to the Irish economy, stemming from poor connectivity.
The decision to use wireless technology for the NBS was one that aimed to reduce the cost and time required to achieve a pervasive roll-out. In hindsight, we can understand that the costs shaved by utilising a less expensive and inferior solution are far outweighed by the cost of lost productivity and regional investment to the Irish economy, stemming from poor connectivity.
Ireland Offline - NBS - Concerns | |
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Low-Band Spectrum acts a Band-Aid
Ireland and the wider European Union is entering the final stages of repurposing the 700MHz band from Digital Terrestrial TV (DTT) services to use with mobile. The deployment of this spectrum as a layer atop existing networks will provide enhanced coverage in both urban and rural areas, penetrating buildings deeper than ever before and covering vast swathes of land that are not supported by mobile providers today. This is a momentous breakthrough for us, and the people that will benefit most are the ones suffering the brunt of the digital divide right now.
Lamentably, however, the 700MHz band is not a saving grace for connectivity in rural Ireland. Instead, the spectrum is a band-aid for problems that will, undoubtedly, crop up in the future if we do not deliver future-proof fixed fibre infrastructure in these areas. This band is just not suitable for the long-term provision of broadband due to its capacity constraints, and so we need to abandon the idea that it could be used as a substitute for fixed infrastructure. Believe me, it can't.
If we look at the 800MHz band in Ireland today, the dominant choice for 4G coverage in rural areas, it is clear that performance can vary wildly depending on the time of day, which dictates the volume of traffic passing through the network. During off-peak hours, few issues are evident, but that changes radically when rush hour arrives and the performance of the network tanks. These are headaches that 5G sets out to solve, but the irony is that it may never get to do so.
Don't get me wrong, however, low-band spectrum is incredibly lucrative for both mobile providers and rural residents. The spectrum can facilitate VoLTE calling and data usage, two paradigms which have yet to arrive in rural Ireland.
Lamentably, however, the 700MHz band is not a saving grace for connectivity in rural Ireland. Instead, the spectrum is a band-aid for problems that will, undoubtedly, crop up in the future if we do not deliver future-proof fixed fibre infrastructure in these areas. This band is just not suitable for the long-term provision of broadband due to its capacity constraints, and so we need to abandon the idea that it could be used as a substitute for fixed infrastructure. Believe me, it can't.
If we look at the 800MHz band in Ireland today, the dominant choice for 4G coverage in rural areas, it is clear that performance can vary wildly depending on the time of day, which dictates the volume of traffic passing through the network. During off-peak hours, few issues are evident, but that changes radically when rush hour arrives and the performance of the network tanks. These are headaches that 5G sets out to solve, but the irony is that it may never get to do so.
Don't get me wrong, however, low-band spectrum is incredibly lucrative for both mobile providers and rural residents. The spectrum can facilitate VoLTE calling and data usage, two paradigms which have yet to arrive in rural Ireland.
The Costs are Extraordinary
On the topic of cost and wireless networks, a cost analysis conducted by ComReg in late 2018 calculated that the CapEx required to provide 30Mbps coverage to 99.5% of the Irish landmass would be €4,250 per person or €1.86 billion. Adding insult to injury, the regulator concluded that achieving pervasive high-speed wireless coverage on this island is not commercially viable for a mobile provider, without state intervention, and a rollout of such far-reaching scale could take multiple decades to complete. Of course, a rollout with a time frame spanning decades would be rendered obsolete almost instantly.
The spectrum utilised in mobile rollouts dictates the patterns of coverage, and ComReg is using 4G (800MHz) in the above statistics. Now, imagine if we were to repeat the same calculations, but substitute the low-band spectrum for that used by high-capacity 5G NR deployments, such as 3.6GHz, 26GHz and 42GHz. Need I explain, the costs would be simply extraordinary.
Moving to some nitty-gritty details about 5G NR specifically, the use of mid and high band spectrum (mostly mmWave) allows for the development of radio antennas which are considerably smaller than what has been possible in the past. This is the byproduct of very short wavelengths (1-10mm), or smaller distances between the peaks and valleys of the radio spectrum. In practice, this means that the size of macrosites can be reduced, and alternatively, provides more room for a higher density of antennas on existing sites, essential for the implementation of Massive MIMO.
The spectrum utilised in mobile rollouts dictates the patterns of coverage, and ComReg is using 4G (800MHz) in the above statistics. Now, imagine if we were to repeat the same calculations, but substitute the low-band spectrum for that used by high-capacity 5G NR deployments, such as 3.6GHz, 26GHz and 42GHz. Need I explain, the costs would be simply extraordinary.
Moving to some nitty-gritty details about 5G NR specifically, the use of mid and high band spectrum (mostly mmWave) allows for the development of radio antennas which are considerably smaller than what has been possible in the past. This is the byproduct of very short wavelengths (1-10mm), or smaller distances between the peaks and valleys of the radio spectrum. In practice, this means that the size of macrosites can be reduced, and alternatively, provides more room for a higher density of antennas on existing sites, essential for the implementation of Massive MIMO.
As explained earlier, the number of active small cells will grow exponentially in the coming years due to the demand for ubiquitous mmWave coverage. This demand can be justified in urban areas and even some rural ones where there are clusters of homes at nodal points such as a road junction. Beyond the low hanging fruit, the availability of mmWave 5G NR will be limited for many years.
There are some techniques, however, that could be used to provide 5G coverage to rural homes and businesses in Ireland. For this to be possible, it is imperative that fibre infrastructure is made available to every home. With this infrastructure, mobile providers could offer consumers femtocells which broadcast in unlicensed spectrum, such as the 6GHz band that is on course to support LAA in Europe over the coming years. These small cells use the fibre connectivity in your home as a means of fixed backhaul, reducing dependence on microwave.
Building on this, there is the possibility to radically change the nature in which broadband is delivered to your home. As an example, every home in an area could be connected with fibre to a centralised cell with microwave backhaul. To support the high level of microwave capacity that would be required, spectrum in the E-Band (71-76 and 81-86GHz) would be utilised. This is extremely high-frequency, high capacity spectrum that has proven to offer "fibre-like" speeds of up to 10Gbps. The hybrid distribution model here has the potential to dramatically shrink costs, a result of reducing the reliance on fibre-only infrastructure, and offers room for scalability in the future.
There are some techniques, however, that could be used to provide 5G coverage to rural homes and businesses in Ireland. For this to be possible, it is imperative that fibre infrastructure is made available to every home. With this infrastructure, mobile providers could offer consumers femtocells which broadcast in unlicensed spectrum, such as the 6GHz band that is on course to support LAA in Europe over the coming years. These small cells use the fibre connectivity in your home as a means of fixed backhaul, reducing dependence on microwave.
Building on this, there is the possibility to radically change the nature in which broadband is delivered to your home. As an example, every home in an area could be connected with fibre to a centralised cell with microwave backhaul. To support the high level of microwave capacity that would be required, spectrum in the E-Band (71-76 and 81-86GHz) would be utilised. This is extremely high-frequency, high capacity spectrum that has proven to offer "fibre-like" speeds of up to 10Gbps. The hybrid distribution model here has the potential to dramatically shrink costs, a result of reducing the reliance on fibre-only infrastructure, and offers room for scalability in the future.
Mapping Microwave Advancement
Building next-generation wireless networks is not possible in the absence of advancing transport network solutions. With each new solution comes new challenges, as the demand for greater capacity produces sacrifices in other areas. Microwave links remain the most cost-effective backhaul strategy for mobile providers today, and with the number of sites on the RAN set to explode, the cost savings will only climb. For this reason, advancement in the microwave backhaul space is essential to 5G, and more specifically, deployments in areas where fixed infrastructure is limited.
The E-Band (70/80GHz) and 32GHz are quickly becoming the preferred options for high capacity microwave deployments across the world, a cornerstone of 5G NR and its benefits. In urban and suburban areas, the E-Band will act as a supplement to fixed infrastructure for backhaul, providing the capacity required for 5G to flourish. This ultra-high frequency microwave band imposes link limits of up to 3km, given its signal attenuation characteristics. However, combining the E-Band with a traditional band is a technique that can be used to achieve links between 3km and 5km, perfect for high-density suburban settings.
As mentioned earlier, this band provides up to 10Gbps capacity, an incredible uplift compared to present-day microwave solutions. At 10Gbps, the E-Band offers 99.999% availability using 1x 2000MHz or 2x 1000MHz. Adding spectrum in the 15–23GHz bands is required for suburban dual-band antenna deployments to provide peak capacity of 11Gbps with 99.9% availability. Finally, 10Gbps of capacity can be achieved through the aggregation of traditional low (6–13GHz: 2Gbps), mid (15–23GHz: 4Gbps) and high (26–42GHz: 4Gbps) bands.
The E-Band (70/80GHz) and 32GHz are quickly becoming the preferred options for high capacity microwave deployments across the world, a cornerstone of 5G NR and its benefits. In urban and suburban areas, the E-Band will act as a supplement to fixed infrastructure for backhaul, providing the capacity required for 5G to flourish. This ultra-high frequency microwave band imposes link limits of up to 3km, given its signal attenuation characteristics. However, combining the E-Band with a traditional band is a technique that can be used to achieve links between 3km and 5km, perfect for high-density suburban settings.
As mentioned earlier, this band provides up to 10Gbps capacity, an incredible uplift compared to present-day microwave solutions. At 10Gbps, the E-Band offers 99.999% availability using 1x 2000MHz or 2x 1000MHz. Adding spectrum in the 15–23GHz bands is required for suburban dual-band antenna deployments to provide peak capacity of 11Gbps with 99.9% availability. Finally, 10Gbps of capacity can be achieved through the aggregation of traditional low (6–13GHz: 2Gbps), mid (15–23GHz: 4Gbps) and high (26–42GHz: 4Gbps) bands.
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is an important metric for any mobile provider to consider when choosing a backhaul solution, and as the data above suggests, microwave backhaul remains less expensive than fibre at every link distance. In urban settings, the cost savings are negligible, thanks to the high penetration of fibre infrastructure. In such scenarios, purchasing dark fibre capacity is a very effective strategy that can be easily scaled with evolving capacity requirements.
In rural areas, where fibre is nowhere to be seen, microwave becomes the only suitable backhaul solution for mobile providers. Channels in two or three bands can be exploited to facilitate link distances beyond 15km with the use of multiple 0.9m antennas. The 32GHz band falls under the category of traditional high-band spectrum and accommodates rural microwave use excellently, balancing link distance with capacity. This band provides up to 4Gbps of capacity, sufficient for sites covering sparsely populated lands.
All of this advancement in microwave technology is bound by the limits of physics, which in turn, impacts the investment required by mobile providers. Sure, the advancements pave the way towards more capable rural networks that do not require fibre backhaul to provide a competent level of capacity. This is a major breakthrough, in anyone's books, reducing costs and expanding the number of locations in which providers can consider commercially viable for network deployment. However, fundamentally, transport networks are underpinned by the pervasiveness of fibre infrastructure, and Ireland needs to wake up to this harsh reality if we truly want to end the digital divide.
In rural areas, where fibre is nowhere to be seen, microwave becomes the only suitable backhaul solution for mobile providers. Channels in two or three bands can be exploited to facilitate link distances beyond 15km with the use of multiple 0.9m antennas. The 32GHz band falls under the category of traditional high-band spectrum and accommodates rural microwave use excellently, balancing link distance with capacity. This band provides up to 4Gbps of capacity, sufficient for sites covering sparsely populated lands.
All of this advancement in microwave technology is bound by the limits of physics, which in turn, impacts the investment required by mobile providers. Sure, the advancements pave the way towards more capable rural networks that do not require fibre backhaul to provide a competent level of capacity. This is a major breakthrough, in anyone's books, reducing costs and expanding the number of locations in which providers can consider commercially viable for network deployment. However, fundamentally, transport networks are underpinned by the pervasiveness of fibre infrastructure, and Ireland needs to wake up to this harsh reality if we truly want to end the digital divide.
5G casts an eerie shadow of doubt.
Bursting the bubble that many would consider 5G to be isn't an easy task, after all, this technology is the next generation in a history of wireless standards that have enabled the growth of entirely new digital ecosystems and spawned new industries. In reality, the initial benefits of 5G will be experienced by few and far between, with its concentration prevailing most profoundly in high density, affluent regions in our cities - the regions which already enjoy the most comprehensive connectivity experience today.
This is why 5G will exacerbate connectivity disparity, not reverse it. Mobile providers and their customers are on the brink of footing an enormous bill, and one that will disproportionately benefit urban centres, alienating rural lands and accelerating the rate of degeneration and outward migration in peripheral regions. Low-band spectrum acts as an ominous band-aid for deeper problems, and this spectrum is not a futureproof approach to rural connectivity.
The slivers of hope for the availability of high-capacity 5G NR services in rural areas vanish as we enter mmWave spectrum territory, where signal attenuation renders even windows impenetrable. With fibre now the backbone of every network, and its presence missing across vast swathes of inhabited Irish land, everything further downstream will choke. State subsidisation of critical telecoms infrastructure, both fixed and wireless, is increasingly becoming a must. We need to apply that lesson to the digital divide in Ireland, sooner rather than later.
This is why 5G will exacerbate connectivity disparity, not reverse it. Mobile providers and their customers are on the brink of footing an enormous bill, and one that will disproportionately benefit urban centres, alienating rural lands and accelerating the rate of degeneration and outward migration in peripheral regions. Low-band spectrum acts as an ominous band-aid for deeper problems, and this spectrum is not a futureproof approach to rural connectivity.
The slivers of hope for the availability of high-capacity 5G NR services in rural areas vanish as we enter mmWave spectrum territory, where signal attenuation renders even windows impenetrable. With fibre now the backbone of every network, and its presence missing across vast swathes of inhabited Irish land, everything further downstream will choke. State subsidisation of critical telecoms infrastructure, both fixed and wireless, is increasingly becoming a must. We need to apply that lesson to the digital divide in Ireland, sooner rather than later.